ETF Trading Strategy


JS-TechTrading Strategies for ETF's have a long history of recognizing shifts in market direction early on to help investors maximize gains in uptrends and protect their portfolios in downtrends. Our strategy is a simple method for trading ETF's based on the technical chart patterns of the major US-indices combined with a selected number of psychological market indicators. The anaysis of chart patterns is based on William o' Neil's analysis of price and volume action of major market indices (Distribution-Day count and Follow-Through Day determination). 

The following technical and psychological market indicators are being used to develop ETF trading recommendations: 

1. Distribution Days 

  • William o' Neil  defines a "significant decline" as a drop of more than 0.2%, with no rounding up. 
  • A distribution day indicates unusually heavy selling by institutional investors, the heavyweights who largely set a market's direction. 
  • Four or five distribution days over several weeks nearly always signal that stocks have topped and are heading for a downturn. 

2. Accumulation Days after a Market Correction

  • System developed by William J. O'Neil to identify an important change in general market direction from a definite downtrend to a new uptrend.
  • A follow-through day occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and in greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. 
  • Leading up to a follow-through day, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn't make a new low. 

3. Up-/Down Volume

4. SP500 Market Volatility

5. Stock Participation / Stocks above 50 dMA

6. Stock Participation / Advance/Decline Ratio

7. Margin Debt

8. Put/Call Ratio

9. Market Sentiment: Bulls vs Bears